Lose the Battle…Lose the War? Reimagining Sino-American Competition in Africa

Graphic by Madeline Barber

On March 28, Vice-President Kamala Harris visited Ghana, meeting with the country’s president as well as visiting a ‘slave castle.’ The next day, in the local African newspapers, a story about Chinese diplomacy in the region made it above-the-fold, while mentions of Harris’s trip to Africa were below-the-fold. Such a story is just a metaphor for the “Scramble for Africa 2.0;” a scramble the United States is losing. 

Why, and more importantly, how, is the US being outperformed in China in a region of the world that we have been involved in extensively since the Cold War? And what can the US do to combat this failure? 

The Power of the Yuan

The realm where the United States is losing most significantly is the economic battle for Africa. Over a decade ago, China became Africa’s largest trading partner, increasing imports from the continent by 233 percent. Its exports also rose 53 percent, while US exports to Africa decreased by 66 percent within the same 2006-2016 period. 

One area where China has been particularly successful is infrastructure investment, a part of its wider Belt-and-Road Initiative that has also seen Chinese-led infrastructure projects pop up in Southeast and Central Asia, the Middle East, and even Europe. African countries have been able to use Chinese loans in order to upgrade their networks: 40 percent of Chinese loans went to electrical projects while another 30 percent went to paving new roads. 

Infrastructure is a space where the US has neglected to sufficiently invest in in recent years. According to the Infrastructure Consortium of Africa, funding for infrastructure in Africa was approximately $77 billion. However, estimates from the African Development Bank in 2018 put the required amount of funding between 130 and 170 billion dollars a year, leaving a gap of at least 60 billion dollars. Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) has helped close this gap for African nations.  

It would be imprudent to understand China’s investment as purely for the sake of finacial gain. With 66 percent of Chinese FDI tied up in transport and energy sectors, it is clear that these investments are part of a wider Chinese strategy to break free from its geography, integrating itself into the wider global fabric. Furthermore, these investments serve as propaganda for the Chinese. The infrastructure itself, along with the Chinese workers and worker-related businesses that follow it, provide strong visual cues to the relationship. They are ‘winning hearts and minds’ of the citizenry in these African nations. American aid, which is often comes in humanitarian packages, bears little visual appeal. China, conversely, has become a neo-colonial power in Africa. Its economic regime with the continent mirrors that of 19th century colonialism, where China imports raw materials and sells back manufactured goods, giving China its very own market for the goods it produces. 

How to Make Friends and Win Influence

China’s investments into Africa have given it a strong diplomatic position in the country. Researchers found that between 2001 and 2018, China’s FDI increased political alignment by 80 percent. Africa’s reliance on foreign investment, a need that China has willingly filled, can box countries into supporting Chinese interests. The researchers further quantified that between 2008 and 2013, every billion spent in Africa by China increased political alignment by 17 percent. 

China is also winning on the soft-power front. The Chinese strategy of “united front work” has been deployed in Africa to help increase Chinese political influence. The strategy includes building an amiable environment for Chinese goals “while marginalizing and neutralizing those who may stand in its way.” The Chinese have deployed their own population in this mission, with as many as 300,000 Chinese living in South Africa and 180,000 in Nigeria, with similarly sized populations in Angola, Mauritius, and Ghana. These expatriates become individual representatives for the state, as well as economic and political intelligence gatherers. In contrast, not a single African nation cracks the top twenty-five countries in which Americans resettle (number 25 is Colombia, with around 21,000 American expats). 

China has also spent resources developing relationships with African elites. Through cultural exchanges, tours, and political training, the Chinese have been able to develop a political environment in Africa that is friendly to their goals and unwilling to speak out against China’s actions. Its Confucius Institutes have also helped increase China’s cultural presence in many African nations. 

While Western media still retains a significant amount of influence in Africa, with the main languages of information being English and French, China has still seen benefits from its initiatives. More English-speaking African students travel to China than the US or UK. Indeed, China is now the largest foreign scholarship donor in Africa. The future leaders of Africa now study in China, not the United States.  

Might Equals Right

One area where the United States still reigns in Africa is the military realm. The United States operates approximately thirty-four forward operating bases in at least a dozen African countries, set up under Section 333. Furthermore, the US has waged secret commando wars throughout Africa, under another Department of Defense program known as Section 127e. This is probably why 14 percent of US commandos are deployed to Africa, the most out of any continent. While many US deployments are supposed to be ‘advise, assist, and accompany’ missions, they have morphed into US-led combat operations against terrorist threats throughout the Sahel, West Africa, and even Somalia. 

However, the Chinese are also encroaching into this space. The Chinese have pledged to increase their support for UN Peacekeeping Forces in Africa, contributing an 8,000-strong standby force, as well as an 800-strong rapid response unit. The vast majority of these Chinese deployments are in Mali, the Congo, Sudan, and South Sudan. 

The Chinese have also become the largest supplier of arms to the region, accounting for 55 percent of weapons imports between 2008 and 2012. Additionally, the Chinese have invested monetarily in African security operations. For example, the Chinese put forward $25 million in military equipment for an African Union base in Cameroon and $30 million for a training facility in Tanzania. 

Yet, Chinese influence in the defense and security sector is also more hidden. One part of this is the growth of Chinese private security firms. In order to protect their infrastructure and other economic outfits, the Chinese have set up multiple private security firms in Africa. These firms are extensions of the state, since they must follow state directives. While these security outfits are unable to carry weapons, they work with and empower local forces to do their bidding. In one instance, a firm recruited a South Sudanese militia to help evacuate Chinese workers and in another instance, the China National Petroleum Corporation provided armed personnel carriers to a South Sudanese militia to assist in protecting its oil fields. Backing these militias can be directly destabilizing, especially in an already frail political environment like South Sudan. 

What is clear is that despite the strength of the US’s military presence in Africa, the Chinese have also expanded their influence into the continent’s security and defense affairs. In fact, China opened its first overseas naval base in Djibouti and has another planned for Equatorial Guinea. The Chinese have carefully worked towards developing a security apparatus throughout Africa that meshes into its economic and political objectives. Theis medley is a significant challenge the United States must answer. 

Much Ado About Africa

So what is the US to do? Well, for one, it is important to recognize that not all hope is lost. Despite China’s growing influence, evidence from Afrobarometer polling shows that 7 out of 10 Africans support democracy and 32 percent of Africans prefer an American model of development, compared to 23 percent supporting Chinese models. Clearly, the ‘war’ for Africa is not lost, but it is also not being won.

The United States must invest more into visible, large-scale African infrastructure projects. This includes roads, dams, telecommunication networks, energy facilities, ports, and railroads. While humanitarian aid is important and should be continued, its effectiveness in winning the ‘hearts and minds’ of Africans pales in comparison to infrastructure. These projects should also hire local Africans, offering alternative means to Chinese projects that are overwhelmingly built by Chinese workers. These projects may be important in re-establishing political alignment in Africa towards the United States. Furthermore, the US must invest into countries that China is actively investing in, not only to counter China, but to prevent a bipolarization of Africa between US-aligned and China-aligned contingents. Avoiding an regional arrangement that mirrors the East-West divide of the Cold War is key to winning the international struggle against Chinese hegemony. 

The US must also consider its soft-power and hard-power initiatives, including education opportunities abroad. Future African leaders should study in the United States, not China. The US must also work directly with African Union and partner countries, empowering their own security forces rather than acting on their behalf. This will not only ensure long-term stability and reduce US casualties but also re-develop military alliances to oppose China’s increasing influence over states’ militaries. 

These solutions are not cheap. But as lawmakers in the United States sound the alarms over China day after day, it is necessary they look around the world and see where the real battles between Chinese and US influence are being fought. And right now, the largest battlefield is the continent of Africa.